Britain is once again grappling with a severe shortage of lorry drivers, reigniting fears of barren supermarket shelves, delayed deliveries, and fuel shortages reminiscent of the early Covid-19 pandemic. While a brief recovery in driver numbers offered temporary relief, recent data reveals a troubling decline, with experts warning that the crisis is far from over. From an aging workforce to shrinking wage incentives and gruelling working conditions, the heavy goods vehicle (HGV) industry faces a perfect storm of challenges threatening the nation’s supply chain.
A Familiar Crisis Returns
During the chaotic first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, Britain witnessed empty shop shelves, fuel-less petrol stations, and delayed vaccine deliveries due to an estimated shortfall of 100,000 lorry drivers. This crisis spurred a brief resurgence in the industry, as companies offered recruitment bonuses and substantial wage increases to lure drivers back. According to the Office for National Statistics (ONS), the median hourly pay for full-time HGV drivers surged by 27% between 2020 and 2023, rising from £11.80 to £14.99. This financial incentive, coupled with a drop in HGV vacancies from 43% in 2021 to 18% in 2023, temporarily eased the pressure.
However, this success proved fleeting. By 2024, lorry driver numbers had slumped to approximately 266,000—more than 20,000 fewer than pre-pandemic levels. Vacancies are creeping up again, signalling a second wave of shortages that could disrupt Britain’s economy and daily life.
An Aging Workforce and a Youth Deficit
One of the primary drivers of this renewed crisis is the industry’s aging older workforce. Data from training provider HGVT reveals that 55% of truckers are aged 50 to 65, while less than 2% are under 25. With a significant portion of drivers nearing retirement age and few young worker recruits entering the field, the shortage is poised to worsen over the next decade. “When many more drivers retire in the coming years, there simply won’t be enough new drivers to replace them,” warns an HGVT spokesperson.
Shrinking Wage Appeal
Another critical factor deterring new entrants is the diminishing financial incentive is the narrowing wage gap between HGV drivers and the national minimum wage. Transport workers earned 62% more than the minimum wage; today, that premium has shrunk to just 38%.
For context, the UK minimum wage for workers over 23 rose to £11.44 per hour in April 2024, according to government figures, leaving HGV drivers with a smaller relative reward for their demanding work.
The Toll of Anti-Social Hours and New Tech
Beyond wages, the industry’s long, unpredictable hours remain a significant barrier. Adding to the frustration, new surveillance technologies like in-cab cameras—designed to monitor drivers for signs of fatigue—have sparked resentment. While intended to improve safety, these innovations may inadvertently exacerbate the shortage by alienating seasoned professionals.
A Looming Threat to Supply Chains
The consequences of this driver deficit are already looming. Supermarkets, fuel stations, and healthcare providers rely heavily on HGVs to keep goods flowing. Without urgent action—whether through enhanced recruitment efforts, improved working conditions, or better pay—the UK risks a repeat of the pandemic-era disruptions that left consumers reeling.
The Workers Union Says…
“Industry leaders and unions agree that addressing the shortage requires a multifaceted approach. Competitive wages, flexible schedules, and a renewed focus on attracting younger drivers could help stabilize the sector. For now, Britain’s supply chain hangs in the balance, with the spectre of empty shelves serving as a stark reminder of the stakes.
